Why Coffee Prices Are Skyrocketing—And What Bulk Buyers Can Do

Picture this: You walk into your supplier’s warehouse, ready to stock up on your usual bulk order of coffee. Instead of your typical price, you see a number that makes you question everything. Did someone misplace a decimal? Has coffee become the new gold? Are we about to start trading beans as currency?

If you run a bakery, café, catering business, or any operation that relies on coffee, you’ve likely been hit hard by the recent price hikes. The once-reliable cost of coffee has turned into a rollercoaster ride with no seatbelts. And if you’re wondering what’s causing this caffeine-fueled chaos, the answer isn’t simple. It’s a mix of climate disasters, supply chain nightmares, and trade drama that’s turning your morning brew into a luxury item.

So, let’s break it down. What’s really behind the price surge, and—more importantly—what can your business do to keep coffee costs under control?

Coffee is a finicky crop. It needs the right balance of temperature, rainfall, and altitude to thrive. Unfortunately, the planet didn’t get the memo.

Brazil, the world’s largest supplier of Arabica coffee, has been dealing with severe droughts. In 2024, rainfall in key growing regions was so low that some farmers saw their crops shrivel before they even had a chance to grow. The result? A massive drop in coffee yields, with estimates slashed by nearly 11 million bags for the 2025 and 2026 seasons.

Meanwhile, Vietnam—the top producer of Robusta beans (often used in espresso blends and instant coffee)—has had the opposite problem: flooding. One moment, farms are desperate for rain. Next, they’re underwater. The result? Another major hit to the global coffee supply.

For businesses that rely on bulk coffee purchases, this is where things get ugly. When supply shrinks and demand stays high, prices shoot up—and there’s no telling when they’ll stabilize.

Even if the coffee beans do survive unpredictable weather, they still have to make it to your supplier. And that’s where the next round of problems kicks in.

• Shipping Delays : Water shortages in the Panama Canal have slowed down cargo transport, forcing companies to take longer, more expensive routes.

• Fuel Costs : It now costs more to move coffee from farms to processing plants and eventually to your supplier.

• Labor Shortages : Many coffee-growing regions are struggling to find workers, which means harvesting and shipping beans takes longer and costs more.

For bakeries, cafés, and caterers that depend on reliable deliveries, these disruptions mean inconsistent stock, unpredictable prices, and the occasional existential crisis while checking invoices.

As if climate and supply chain issues weren’t enough, politics is making things even more unpredictable.

Recently, the U.S. government threatened a 25% tariff on Colombian imports, including coffee. While this tariff hasn’t been enacted yet, the mere possibility of it sent traders into a frenzy. Coffee buyers rushed to lock in supplies, pushing prices even higher.

Even though Colombia’s president made a deal to avoid the tariff (for now), the uncertainty alone was enough to shake the market. And if trade tensions flare up again? Expect another round of price hikes.

If you’re in the food industry, you’ve probably already felt the impact. Here’s what’s happening on the ground:

• Grocery store coffee prices have risen over 3% in the past year.

• Coffee pods and single-serve options have jumped in price even more.

• Bulk coffee buyers (like cafés and caterers) are seeing wholesale costs rise dramatically.

If you serve hundreds—or thousands—of cups a week, this isn’t just an inconvenience. It’s a serious hit to your bottom line.

So, what can bakeries, caterers, and cafés do to handle the rising costs? Here are some strategies that businesses are using to stay afloat:

With prices fluctuating like crazy, some businesses are negotiating fixed-rate contracts with suppliers. Locking in a stable price for several months can help you avoid the worst of the spikes.

Some food businesses are tweaking their recipes to stretch their coffee supply further. For example:

• Bakeries are using more concentrated coffee extracts instead of brewed coffee in desserts.

• Caterers are offering smaller coffee servings while keeping pricing steady.

• Manufacturers are experimenting with blends that use less coffee but still deliver rich flavor.

Arabica coffee may be the gold standard, but Robusta beans—which have a stronger, more bitter taste—are becoming a cost-saving alternative. Some suppliers are also sourcing beans from emerging markets that haven’t been hit as hard by supply shortages.

Let’s face it—some price increases are unavoidable. But instead of shocking customers with big jumps, some businesses are making gradual adjustments:

• Raising coffee prices by $0.25 to $0.50 per cup rather than all at once.

• Offering smaller sizes for the same price instead of increasing prices outright.

• Bundling coffee with other menu items to disguise price hikes.

The short answer? Probably not anytime soon.

With climate change continuing to disrupt production, supply chains struggling to recover, and trade policies in flux, experts predict that coffee prices will remain high through at least 2025. Even if they stabilize, they’re unlikely to return to pre-2024 levels.

For food businesses, that means planning ahead is key. Whether it’s securing bulk supplier contracts, adjusting pricing models, or experimenting with alternative blends, adapting now can help soften the impact of future increases.

The days of cheap, predictable coffee prices are gone. Bulk buyers—whether they’re running cafés, bakeries, or catering companies—need to be proactive in navigating these price changes.

At Baker’s Authority, we understand the challenges of sourcing ingredients in an unpredictable market. Whether you need bulk coffee, specialty baking ingredients, or wholesale supplies, we’re here to help keep your business stocked—no matter what the market throws your way.

One thing’s for sure: The cost of coffee may be rising, but the demand for caffeine isn’t going anywhere.